Mary Peltola's Chances of Beating the Dan Sullivans in Alaska
Summary
Mary Peltola, a Democrat, is slightly ahead in Alaska's 2026 Senate race against the Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. The race is close and complicated by a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., making the final outcome uncertain under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.Key Facts
- Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan in recent polls by a small margin.
- Polls and prediction markets give Peltola a 50-60% chance of winning.
- Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system where voters rank candidates, and second or third choices can decide the winner.
- Three of the four candidates advancing to the general election include Peltola, Dan S. Sullivan, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
- The fourth spot is tight between Republican Gerald L. Heikes and Democrat David B. Leslie.
- The winner could be influenced by which candidate wins the last general-election slot.
- The second Daniel Sullivan’s candidacy has drawn criticism from Republican figures who say it may confuse voters.
- Ballots counted so far show Peltola with about 48% and Sullivan close behind with about 43%.
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