Mapping the Iran war’s strikes on Gulf energy – and what comes next for oil
Summary
Six months into the war involving Iran, major U.S. oil companies have reported their highest profits since 2022 by selling less oil at higher prices. However, the conflict has also caused disruptions in the Gulf region, especially near the Strait of Hormuz, which affects oil shipments and threatens the future of energy investments there.Key Facts
- Brent crude oil prices increased about 22% since the war started, rising from $72 to $88 per barrel.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about 20% of the world's oil and gas shipments, remains mostly closed to commercial traffic.
- Iran and Oman agreed on a temporary naval route, but Iran says the strait will not fully reopen until a U.S. peace deal commitment is met.
- U.S. energy companies are producing 30-40% less oil and gas from the Gulf region this year compared to last year.
- Chevron earned $12 billion in adjusted profits recently, with limited exposure to Gulf supply disruptions (only 5% of its output comes from the Arab Gulf).
- ExxonMobil, which depends more on Middle Eastern oil and gas (about 20% of its production), saw a $1.3 billion drop in upstream earnings in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025, but higher prices offset this loss.
- The Gulf's energy market is mainly controlled by state-owned companies, but U.S. firms have significant roles through stakes, partnerships, and contracts.
- Ongoing conflict and instability threaten future projects and investments by U.S. oil and gas companies in the region.
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