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James Talarico and Ken Paxton in Dead Heat in Razor Tight Texas Senate Race

James Talarico and Ken Paxton in Dead Heat in Razor Tight Texas Senate Race

Summary

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are tied at 50% each in a Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a recent poll. This race is one of the closest and most important for the 2026 midterm elections as Democrats aim to win a seat Texas has not given them since 1988.

Key Facts

  • James Talarico (Democrat) and Ken Paxton (Republican) are tied at 50% in a new poll by Overton Strategies.
  • Texas has been a Republican stronghold, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat there since 1988.
  • Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
  • Recent polls mostly show Talarico with a slight lead or a close race.
  • Control of the U.S. Senate could be affected by this race in the 2026 midterms.
  • The same poll shows a close race for Texas governor between Republican Greg Abbott (51%) and Democrat Gina Hinojosa (49%).
  • Both Democratic and Republican parties are expected to invest heavily in these Texas races before Election Day.
  • Political analysts rate the Senate race as a tossup, while the governor race is considered likely Republican.
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