Map Shows Updated Election Forecast As 3 Races Shift Toward Democrats
Summary
Three U.S. governor races have recently shifted in favor of Democrats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball political forecast. Alaska is now rated as a Toss-Up, Iowa leans Democratic, and Pennsylvania is considered Safe Democratic for the November elections.Key Facts
- Republicans currently hold a small lead with 26 governors versus 24 for Democrats.
- Alaska changed from Likely Republican to Toss-Up because of a crowded primary and uncertain ranked-choice voting results.
- In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn in the polls, moving the state from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic.
- Pennsylvania’s governor race moved from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic as Governor Josh Shapiro holds a strong lead.
- Georgia remains the only other Toss-Up race, with Republicans defending its governorship.
- There are 36 governor races this year, split evenly between Republican and Democratic seats.
- If the forecast holds, the outcome in Alaska and Georgia will decide if Republicans keep their majority or Democrats gain control.
- Ranked-choice voting means voters rank candidates by preference, and if no one wins outright, lower-ranked candidates are removed and votes reallocated. This makes the Alaska race unpredictable.
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