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The Seven-Point Gap That Could Save Ken Paxton

The Seven-Point Gap That Could Save Ken Paxton

Summary

A recent poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race by 3 points. However, overall Republican support remains higher in generic ballots, suggesting Paxton may win if most Republicans back him despite his controversies.

Key Facts

  • James Talarico, a Christian Democrat, leads Ken Paxton 42% to 39% in a Texas Senate poll.
  • Republicans hold a 48% to 44% lead over Democrats in a generic U.S. House ballot poll.
  • President Donald Trump strongly supports Paxton, with MAGA Inc. investing $10 million in his campaign.
  • Paxton’s support among Republicans has dropped from 84% to 79% since June.
  • Independents show more support for Talarico (37%) than Paxton (11%), but 43% remain undecided.
  • Texas Governor Greg Abbott is more popular among Republicans (86%) than Paxton (79%) in similar polling.
  • In 2022, Paxton had lower Republican support before winning reelection, showing some Republican voters vote for him reluctantly.
  • Talarico’s favorability rating is higher than Paxton’s, and Republican voter enthusiasm is lower now than four years ago.
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