How Democrats' November Polling Lead Compares to Trump's First Midterm
Summary
Democrats currently lead Republicans in polls for the 2026 midterm elections, but their advantage is smaller than in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first midterm. Despite Trump’s low approval ratings, changes in voting districts and voter dissatisfaction with both parties make the election outcomes less certain.Key Facts
- Democrats have a 5.8-point lead on the generic ballot as of early September 2026, compared to a 7.8-point lead in 2018.
- President Trump’s approval rating has reached record lows since his return to office.
- Voters show frustration with both the Democratic and Republican parties.
- Redistricting has made some battleground districts more favorable to Republicans.
- Republicans have gained advantages in states like Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas due to redistricting.
- Democrats aim to win seats in deeper Republican-leaning districts as Trump’s approval decreases.
- Polls from Morning Consult, YouGov, and Ipsos show Democrats leading by 4 to 5 points in different surveys.
- Historically, the party not holding the presidency tends to do better in midterm elections when the president’s approval is low.
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