Will AI Cause Human Extinction Within 10 Years? We Asked AI
Summary
AI experts and popular AI chatbots were asked about the chance that AI could cause human extinction within the next 10 years. Estimates vary, but one widely cited AI, ChatGPT, gave around a 5% chance, noting there are many uncertainties and that advanced AI would need to pass several difficult steps to cause such an outcome.Key Facts
- AI researcher Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic, citing risks that powerful AI could threaten human survival.
- Evan Hubinger, another Anthropic researcher, said he believes there is over a 10% chance of AI causing serious harm within the next decade.
- Newsweek asked AI chatbots like Claude, Gemini, Copilot, and ChatGPT about the likelihood of AI causing human extinction within 10 years.
- ChatGPT estimated about a 5% chance, with a wide range from 1% to 15%, due to many unknown future factors.
- Factors affecting risk include how fast AI improves, whether AI can act on long-term goals independently, and how well humans control or regulate AI systems.
- Experts agree the risk deserves attention but differ on how likely it is and when it might occur.
- Current AI systems are not capable of causing loss of control, but future advances might increase that risk.
- Catastrophic AI risk does not require conscious AI, but rather highly competent and autonomous AI that humans can't effectively control.
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