Summary
A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 4 points in the Texas Senate race. The poll was partly conducted by Tony Fabrizio, a pollster who has worked closely with President Donald Trump.Key Facts
- James Talarico has 48% support; Ken Paxton has 44% in the latest Texas Senate race poll.
- The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research; Tony Fabrizio has worked as President Trump’s pollster.
- Independent voters favored Talarico by 22 points (55% to 33%).
- Paxton has 83% support among Republicans; Talarico has 94% support among Democrats.
- Talarico received 9% support from Republicans; Paxton received 2% support from Democrats.
- Talarico’s net favorability is +7 points (42% favorable, 35% unfavorable); Paxton’s net favorability is -11 points (35% favorable, 46% unfavorable).
- The poll surveyed 895 likely voters between August 30 and September 1, 2026, with a 3.3% margin of error.
- Other recent polls also show Talarico either tied with or leading Paxton by a few points.
- Prediction markets see the race as very close, with each candidate around a 50% chance to win.
