Al-Qaida and IS-linked violence in Africa’s Sahel belt set to hit record levels this year
Summary
Violence involving groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State in Africa’s Sahel region is at record levels, with attacks rising sharply in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These incidents have increased from 63 in 2016 to over 2,100 so far in 2025, with the year likely to see more than 3,000 violent events.Key Facts
- Islamist extremist violence in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) is increasing rapidly.
- Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled) recorded violent events rising from 63 in 2016 to over 2,100 in 2025.
- Estimated total violent events could exceed 3,000 by the end of 2025.
- More than 9,000 deaths in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger were recorded from security incidents in 2025.
- A joint offensive by al-Qaida-linked JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front seized key areas in Mali and killed top military leaders.
- Violence includes attacks by government forces and Russian mercenaries, as well as clashes between jihadist groups.
- JNIM has increased attacks in Burkina Faso, especially near the capital, and expanded operations in neighboring countries.
- Experts note these groups focus on local conflicts and have not planned attacks in Europe or the US.
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