Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Latest Kansas Senate Race Odds and Polls
Summary
The Kansas Senate race between Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton is becoming more competitive than expected. Recent polls show Hamilton slightly ahead or close to Marshall, with independent voters playing a key role, though Marshall remains favored to win.Key Facts
- A recent Emerson College Poll shows Hamilton leading Marshall 45% to 43%.
- Senator Roger Marshall is seeking a second term; Adam Hamilton is trying to become Kansas’ first Democratic Senator since 1932.
- Libertarian candidate David Graham has 4% support in the Emerson poll.
- Other recent polls show either a narrow lead for Hamilton or Marshall, indicating a close race.
- Election forecasters have shifted Kansas from a "solid Republican" to a "likely Republican" Senate race.
- Prediction markets give Marshall roughly a 70-74% chance of winning and Hamilton about 26-28%.
- Hamilton leads independent voters by a wide margin (42% to 27%), which is helping make the race competitive.
- President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Kansas is at 40%, with 53% disapproval; the economy is the top concern for voters.
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