Australia’s deaths to outnumber births by 2060s, report says
Summary
Australia's government report predicts that by the 2060s, the number of deaths will be higher than births in the country. The population is expected to grow more slowly, with immigration supporting growth as birth rates fall, while the economy is projected to more than double by the mid-2060s thanks to productivity improvements and higher workforce participation.Key Facts
- Australia will have more deaths than births by the 2060s, similar to countries like Japan and Germany.
- The population is forecast to reach about 39.3 million by 2065-66, which is 1.8 million fewer than earlier estimates.
- Annual population growth is expected to slow to 0.9%, down from 1.4% over the past 40 years.
- The number of Australians aged 85 and older will triple by 2065-66.
- Immigration will be the only source of population growth because the birth rate is predicted to fall to 1.34 children per woman.
- The economy is expected to more than double in size, helped by advances in artificial intelligence and more women and older people working.
- Productivity growth has recently slowed, with average annual productivity growth dropping from 1.8% in 2003-04 to 0.8% in 2023-24.
- The Business Council of Australia warned that relying on AI to boost productivity is uncertain and said Australians are already experiencing lower living standards due to weak productivity growth.
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