Think Australia would be better off with less migration? The numbers tell a different story
Summary
Australia's birth rate has been below the level needed to keep the population steady without migration for 50 years and is expected to drop further. The government report says migration is important to support the economy, help pay for healthcare and aged care, and slow the ageing population. Lower migration and fertility rates would lead to slower economic growth and higher government debt.Key Facts
- The replacement fertility rate to keep population steady is 2.1 children per woman; Australia's rate is about 1.5 now and expected to fall to 1.34 in 40 years.
- By the mid-2060s, deaths in Australia will likely outnumber births for the first time.
- More older people and fewer workers will increase pressures on healthcare, aged care, and government budgets.
- Migration helps increase the population, slow ageing, and support the economy through skills and innovation.
- The report’s main forecast assumes 235,000 net overseas migrants per year.
- With this migration level, average living standards per person (GDP per capita) are expected to grow from $99,200 to $157,300 in 40 years.
- A scenario with 50,000 fewer migrants per year and lower fertility shows a small drop in GDP per person and a worse “dependency ratio” (more older people per working-age person).
- Lower population growth would lead to a higher budget deficit and an increase in government debt as a share of GDP.
Read the Full Article
This is a fact-based summary from The Actual News. Click below to read the complete story directly from the original source.
