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Critics of UK government’s economic forecaster are ‘shooting the messenger’, say MPs

Critics of UK government’s economic forecaster are ‘shooting the messenger’, say MPs

Summary

A UK parliamentary committee defended the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s independent economic forecaster, against widespread criticism. The committee advised keeping the OBR’s role unchanged but suggested adding a 10-year forecast and more parliamentary debate on long-term fiscal risks.

Key Facts

  • The Treasury committee said attacking the OBR is like "shooting the messenger" because the OBR provides impartial economic forecasts.
  • They opposed calls to radically change the OBR’s structure or role.
  • MPs recommended adding a 10-year economic forecast alongside the current 5- and 50-year forecasts.
  • Parliament should discuss the OBR's annual report on fiscal risks and the long-term outlook for public finances.
  • The OBR was created in 2010 to give independent economic growth forecasts and assess the impact of government tax and spending.
  • Critics say the OBR sometimes underestimates or overestimates economic growth and that its forecasts heavily influence government spending limits.
  • A former OBR chair resigned in December 2025 after a budget assessment leak.
  • The committee chair urged the government to protect the OBR’s independence while considering longer-term economic planning.
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