Map Shows Where El Niño Poses Greatest Risk of Death
Summary
Researchers from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab warn that a strong El Niño event could cause hundreds of thousands of extra heat-related deaths worldwide, especially in the Global South. This event may show how rising temperatures from climate change could affect human health in the future.Key Facts
- El Niño is a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide, affecting heat and rainfall.
- Forecasters say there is a more than 90% chance of a strong El Niño during late 2024 and early 2025.
- The Climate Impact Lab predicts about 451,000 extra heat-related deaths during the first half of this El Niño.
- About 239,000 of these deaths could happen in the next six months alone.
- The deadliest impacts are expected in the Global South, including parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, Brazil, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
- Temperatures during this El Niño could be 1.2°C (2.1°F) above normal, similar to what climate change may bring in 20 years.
- These higher temperatures will cause around 44% more extremely hot days than usual.
- Actions like heat warnings, cooling centers, and protecting vulnerable people can help reduce deaths.
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