Powerful El Nino could cause more than 450,000 deaths, scientists say
Summary
Scientists predict that a strong El Nino event could cause over 450,000 extra deaths from heat globally by February 2027. The event is expected to raise land temperatures and heatwaves, hitting poorer, hotter regions like parts of Africa and Asia the hardest.Key Facts
- More than 450,000 additional deaths are expected worldwide due to heat caused by El Nino over the next six months.
- Global land temperatures may rise about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) during this period.
- Extremely hot days could be 44% more frequent than in a normal year.
- The Sahel region in Africa is expected to see about 66,800 extra deaths, with Nigeria projected to have the highest toll at 31,400.
- Other countries with significant projected deaths include Indonesia (19,300), Sudan (17,600), India (15,800), Brazil (13,300), and parts of Southeast Asia (19,400 combined).
- Poorer, hotter places are at greater risk because they often lack air conditioning, reliable water, and healthcare.
- The heat dangers may last beyond the El Nino event, affecting temperatures into the summer of 2027.
- Experts say better preparedness and action are needed to reduce preventable heat-related deaths.
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