Abdul El-Sayed Gets Boost in Michigan Race as Forecaster Shifts Outlook
Summary
A top election forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has changed its rating for the Michigan Senate race, now favoring Democrat Abdul El-Sayed over Republican Mike Rogers. Polls show El-Sayed with a small lead, and prediction markets also give him better chances to win. The candidates have recently criticized each other on issues like the Iran war and crime policies.Key Facts
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Michigan’s Senate race from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.”
- Polls show El-Sayed leading Rogers by a few points, with one poll showing 47% to 40%.
- Prediction market Polymarket gives El-Sayed a 73% chance to win versus 28% for Rogers.
- El-Sayed campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris in Detroit.
- Rogers criticized El-Sayed’s stance on crime, claiming he supports defunding police and emptying prisons.
- El-Sayed blamed gas price increases in Michigan on President Donald Trump’s war in Iran, which Rogers supported.
- The forecaster noted that El-Sayed may perform below expectations for a Democrat in Michigan in 2026.
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball also adjusted ratings for Senate races in Iowa (now Toss-up) and Kansas (now Leans Republican).
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