AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
Summary
A new study from Munich’s CESifo found no clear evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) has caused higher unemployment for recent college graduates so far. Researchers looked at detailed U.S. job data and found unemployment rates for recent graduates in 2026 were similar to previous years, despite concerns from some experts and business leaders that AI might reduce entry-level jobs.Key Facts
- Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu studied unemployment among college graduates aged 22 to 25 using U.S. Census data.
- They focused on recent graduates because companies might reduce new hiring before laying off existing workers.
- The unemployment rate for this group in summer 2026 was 7.3%, similar to past years (6.3%-7.8% between 2022 and 2024).
- Including graduates who want jobs but aren’t actively searching did not change the findings.
- Researchers compared groups by age and education level and considered how much their jobs could be affected by AI.
- They found no strong evidence that AI has increased unemployment for recent graduates so far.
- Some experts had warned AI could cause a rise in graduate unemployment in 2026, but current data do not support this.
- AI adoption and AI-related spending are rising, which could affect future job markets, but the impact is not yet visible in the data.
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