James Talarico’s Texas Hype Train Has a 2024 Problem
Summary
James Talarico, a Democrat, is currently leading Republican Ken Paxton in polls for the Texas Senate race. However, past polling in Texas has sometimes been misleading, especially in years when former President Donald Trump was on the ballot, so the race may still change.Key Facts
- James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 1 point in the latest Emerson College Texas poll (47% to 46%).
- Talarico is young, Christian, and supports liberal views on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
- Ken Paxton is a Republican with a history of scandals and corruption allegations.
- Past Texas polls have often underestimated Republican margins when Trump was involved in elections.
- In 2024, Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points.
- Talarico’s campaign raised $68.6 million by mid-2024, much more than Paxton’s $9.2 million.
- Conservative super PACs spent $98.5 million on Republican ads in Texas by mid-September.
- Texas polling has varied: Democrats were underestimated in 2018 midterms, but Republicans were underestimated in 2020 and 2024 Senate races.
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