Midterm Race Ratings Have Never Mattered More and Never Been so Disruptive
Summary
The Cook Political Report recently changed New Hampshire's Senate race rating to "Toss Up," indicating a highly competitive election. Election rating firms, both qualitative and quantitative, analyze races differently, leading to varied predictions about which party has the advantage in key U.S. Senate contests this year.Key Facts
- New Hampshire's Senate race rating was changed to "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report shortly after Congressman Chris Pappas won the Democratic primary.
- The state has not voted for a Republican president since 2000 and currently has two Democratic senators.
- Election ratings help donors decide where to give money and guide media coverage.
- Leading qualitative raters include Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
- These ratings are based on factors like past votes, candidate strength, polls, and interviews.
- Quantitative raters use data and statistical models focused on polls and the generic ballot, which measures general party support.
- Quantitative raters like FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, and VoteHub predict a better chance for Democrats in several Senate races compared to qualitative raters.
- Differences in ratings have increased scrutiny and debate on how to best predict election outcomes ahead of the midterms.
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