How Midterm Forecast Maps Compare to Previous Elections
Summary
A Newsweek analysis compares key House races in 2018, 2022, and 2026 using the Cook Political Report’s ratings. It shows Republicans currently hold more competitive districts at risk in 2026, similar to 2018, while Democrats had more vulnerable seats in 2022.Key Facts
- Cook Political Report rates all 435 House districts on a seven-point scale from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican, with Toss Up meaning neither side has an advantage.
- In October 2018, Republicans held 45 competitive seats rated Toss Up or worse, while Democrats held 3.
- In October 2022, Democrats held 30 such competitive seats, and Republicans held 12.
- For the 2026 elections, Republicans hold 23 competitive seats, and Democrats hold 11.
- The ratings include categories like Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss Up, each showing a different level of advantage or competition.
- In 2018, Democrats gained control of the House by winning many competitive districts, including some rated as Lean or Likely Republican.
- The current ratings show the Republican majority is defending a larger number of vulnerable districts compared to recent years.
- Election ratings and competitiveness can change between now and Election Day.
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