Map Shows States Facing Higher Wildfire Risk During El Niño
Summary
A strong El Niño climate pattern is developing and will likely increase wildfire risk in parts of northern U.S. states like Montana and Idaho, while lowering wildfire risk in much of the southern and southwestern U.S. El Niño changes ocean temperatures and wind patterns, which then affect weather and wildfire chances differently across regions.Key Facts
- El Niño is a natural climate cycle with warm Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that affect global weather.
- The current El Niño is strengthening and could become very strong in the fall and winter of 2026-27.
- El Niño tends to make the southern U.S. cooler and wetter in winter, reducing wildfire risk there.
- Northern states like Montana, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming may see higher wildfire risk in spring due to El Niño.
- Changes in wildfire risk depend on many factors like vegetation dryness, wind, and drought conditions.
- Studies by NOAA and other climate researchers support these regional fire risk predictions.
- El Niño affects the jet stream, which influences where dry or wet weather occurs in the U.S.
- Wildfire managers use El Niño forecasts to better prepare for future fire activity.
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