The Blue Wave Is Redder Than We Realize
Summary
Some U.S. states are expected to have different parties win the governor and Senate races in the 2024 elections. Polls show a possible split, meaning voters might choose a Democrat for one office and a Republican for the other in several states.Key Facts
- Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 or a Democratic governor since 1990.
- Current polls show Democrat James Talarico slightly leading Republican Ken Paxton for Senate in Texas.
- Republican Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa in Texas governor’s race.
- Seven states are likely to have different parties winning governor and Senate races, including New Hampshire, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska, and Maine.
- In New Hampshire, Democrats are favored for Senate, Republicans for governor.
- In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is favored, but the governor’s race is uncertain.
- Democrats need to gain four Senate seats to control the Senate; some key races could decide this balance.
- Polls show voters often pick candidates from different parties for governor and Senate, a phenomenon called “ticket-splitting.”
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