Gas prices unlikely to drop below $4 before midterms, some experts say. Here's why.
Summary
Experts say gas prices in the U.S. are unlikely to drop below $4 a gallon before the midterm elections in early November 2026. High fuel costs are mainly due to conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war, which have damaged oil infrastructure and limited supply.Key Facts
- The national average gas price is $4.27 per gallon as of October 2026.
- Gas prices have increased about 43% since the Iran war began in February 2026.
- Middle East fighting damaged oil infrastructure, raising transportation costs.
- The Russia-Ukraine war reduced fuel exports from Russia, adding to shortages.
- Oil prices, measured by Brent crude, rose nearly 60% since the Iran war started, reaching over $112 per barrel recently.
- Attacks by Iran and its allies targeted vessels and energy facilities in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil transport route.
- Gas prices tend to fall more slowly than they rise, delaying any price relief even if conflicts ease.
- The U.S. imports a small amount of fuel from the Middle East, but global oil market forces keep prices high worldwide.
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