Has Russia Stopped Fearing NATO? | Opinion
Summary
The author argues that NATO’s predictable restraint may weaken deterrence as Russia escalates its actions against Ukraine and NATO countries. He calls for clearer red lines and less predictable responses, saying NATO should set the terms for how it responds to aggression.Key Facts
- The author is Vytautas Leskevicius, chief policy advisor at the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center.
- The article cites Russia’s wars in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014, followed by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
- The author says Russia has also carried out sabotage, cyber operations and interference with satellite navigation signals, and that drones have entered NATO territory.
- The author criticizes NATO’s use of the term “sub-threshold” for hostile actions, arguing that it can weaken deterrence if NATO does not define the threshold or consequences for crossing it.
- The article refers to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urging Allies to “keep calm, carry on, and support Ukraine.”
- The author points to NATO’s 1967 flexible-response strategy as a model that kept the specific response uncertain while signaling that aggression could bring unacceptable costs.
- The author argues that setting clearer red lines could lead Russia to test them, but says predictable restraint may also encourage further escalation.
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