"Nauseously optimistic": Anxious House Democrats brace for midterm Election Day
Summary
House Democrats say they are optimistic about winning the House on Nov. 3, but they worry that polling could be wrong or that late campaign developments could hurt them. They are targeting many Republican-held districts, while redrawn districts in Southern states and expected Republican spending could limit their gains.Key Facts
- Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held House seats, including districts that Donald Trump carried by 10 to 20 points in 2024.
- House Majority PAC began spending in New York Rep. Elise Stefanik’s district and against Nebraska Rep. Mike Flood.
- The PAC shifted money away from several open-seat races because it believes Democrats are positioned to win those races handily.
- Rep. Ro Khanna said he was cautiously optimistic Democrats could gain 20 to 25 seats; a landslide scenario could bring 40 or 50 pickups.
- Redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is expected to reduce Democratic gains, including through likely Republican wins in newly drawn Tennessee and Louisiana seats.
- Some Democratic leaders are concerned about the reelection prospects of Reps. Kathy Castor, Darren Soto and Shomari Figures in their new districts.
- Democrats cited past polling errors, concerns about election interference and the possibility of late Republican spending as reasons to temper expectations.
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