Early vote one week out shows Democratic enthusiasm in Texas, Georgia: Analysis
Summary
An ABC News analysis of early voting in Texas and Georgia found that voters modeled as likely Democrats make up a larger share of early ballots than they did at the same point in 2022, especially among less-frequent voters in Texas. The analysis uses voter records and party-support models; it does not show how individuals voted or predict who will vote by Election Day.Key Facts
- More than 39 million Americans had voted early by Wednesday afternoon, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
- More than 5 million Texans had cast early ballots by Wednesday, representing more than 20% of registered voters.
- As of Monday, voters modeled as likely Democrats made up 51% of Texas early voters, compared with 45% modeled as likely Republicans.
- The modeled Democratic share in Texas was 14 percentage points higher than its position in the completed 2022 early vote, when it trailed Republicans by about 8 points.
- Voters who participated in all four of the last four federal elections made up 60% of Texas early voters as of Monday, compared with 47% of the full early vote in 2024 and 44% in 2022.
- The article says Texas has closely watched Senate and governor races, and Democrats are seeking to win statewide offices there for the first time since 1994.
- Texas and Georgia do not register voters by party, so the analysis uses models based on factors such as primary turnout to estimate likely party support.
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