Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe
Summary
Analysts say a Democratic victory in the U.S. midterms would not fundamentally change European elections, but could affect political debates in Europe. They warn it might make some Europeans less concerned about far-right movements and could lead President Donald Trump to increase pressure on Ukraine to accept a deal with Russia.Key Facts
- Polls cited in the article give Democrats an average eight-point lead in both the House and Senate.
- Catherine Fieschi of Carnegie Europe said a Democratic win could encourage the view that democracies can recover from far-right or authoritarian politics.
- French politician Marine Le Pen is leading polls for the presidential election scheduled for April 18, with surveys putting her at about 34 percent.
- An ECFR poll conducted in June 2025 found that majorities in Western Europe viewed the U.S. political system as broken; majorities in Eastern Europe viewed it as working well.
- Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris said European shifts toward tighter migration policies developed independently, while U.S. actions influenced the tone of the debate.
- The article says Le Pen has proposed reducing France’s contributions to the EU budget and military aid to Ukraine, and has raised the possibility of replacing the euro with a devalued franc.
- The article cites the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker for an estimate that France provides 3.5 percent of Ukraine’s foreign military aid.
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