How Key Midterm Races Changed During Donald Trump’s 30-Day Campaign Blitz
Summary
A Newsweek analysis found no consistent Republican polling gains across eight Senate races where President Donald Trump campaigned in October. Four races shifted toward Republicans and four toward Democrats, while prediction-market prices for Republican candidates fell in six states on at least one platform.Key Facts
- The analysis covered Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina.
- Newsweek compared Silver Bulletin polling averages from October 1, each state’s first October rally date and October 28.
- Across the eight races, no polling margin shifted by more than 2 points.
- Kansas had the sharpest prediction-market move: Republican Roger Marshall’s displayed price fell by more than 14 percentage points on both Kalshi and Polymarket as Democrat Adam Hamilton took the polling lead.
- In Texas, Ohio and Iowa, Republican candidates gained modestly in polling margins while traders became less confident in them.
- In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan gained on both prediction markets, while Democrat Mary Peltola extended her polling advantage by 1 point.
- The article says six of the eight races were rated tossups by Cook Political Report.
- Kyle Kondik said Trump’s influence as a campaigner was probably waning; the article also reported that experts and Republican campaign officials viewed rallies as potentially more effective at mobilizing existing supporters than persuading undecided voters.
Read the Full Article
This is a fact-based summary from The Actual News. Click below to read the complete story directly from the original source.
