Key Facts

• Florida’s 14th District shifted from a district Kamala Harris won by 8 points to one Donald Trump won by 11 points after redistricting; a win by Rep. Kathy Castor would signal serious trouble for House Republicans.
• Florida’s 25th District shifted from Harris +4 to Trump +9 and is described as the country’s most expensive general election race; Rep. Jared Moskowitz’s performance could indicate whether Republicans can remain hopeful about keeping the House.
• South Carolina’s Senate race is a key early indicator: a loss by Sen. Darline Graham to Annie Andrews in a state Trump won by 18 points would cost Republicans their Senate majority, according to the article.
• In Virginia, Democratic wins in the 1st District, which Trump carried by 5 points, or the 5th District, which he carried by 12 points, would point to a strong or very strong Democratic night.
• Virginia’s 2nd District race between Rep. Jen Kiggans and her Democratic challenger may show whether a Republican can hold a closely divided district; the article says Kiggans won by 3.8 points in 2024 while Trump carried the district by 0.2 points.
• A Democratic win in Kentucky’s open 6th District, which Trump carried by 15 points, would be a warning sign for Republicans.
• The article says Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate race and Iowa’s Senate race involving Ashley Hinson could help show whether Republicans still have a path to a Senate majority.
• Results in Maine may not be clear until Wednesday, and Alaska’s ranked-choice voting process could delay results for weeks.