Why Florida Republicans are "white-knuckled" about Tuesday
Summary
Florida Republicans are concerned that early voting turnout is weaker than expected ahead of Tuesday’s midterms, despite holding a registration advantage and leading in many polls. The concern centers on Republican Byron Donalds’ governor’s race against Democrat David Jolly: Democrats have made gains among early voters, and Donalds may need a large Election Day margin to overcome a possible vote deficit.Key Facts
- Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon, despite an 11-point registration advantage.
- Donalds has raised $176 million, compared with $28 million for Jolly.
- In 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below its 2022 level; in counties he won, it is 1.1 points below.
- Democrats have already exceeded their full 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.
- About two-thirds of Florida voters typically vote before Election Day.
- Internal estimates shared with Axios suggest Donalds could enter Election Day as many as 500,000 votes behind and might need to win Election Day voting by a 2-to-1 margin.
- Among active registered voters under 30, 25% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans have voted.
- Florida Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, and the state GOP has more funding and organization than the state Democratic Party.
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