Midterm Polls, Prediction Markets Ride 'Blue Wave' to Death or Glory
Summary
Polls and prediction markets both point to Democratic gains in the November 3, 2026, midterms, including possible control of the House and Senate. The article says the forecasts share risks: prediction markets often reflect polling, and polling errors can affect many races in the same direction.Key Facts
- RealClearPolling's average gives Democrats an 8.2-point lead in the generic congressional vote, 51.4% to 43.2%.
- Nate Silver's polling average puts Democrats ahead 51.2% to 42.5%.
- Kalshi traders assign Democrats a 69% chance of winning the Senate and a 92% chance of winning the House.
- Polymarket gives Democrats a 72% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% chance of winning the House.
- The article reports that Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race.
- Andrew Gelman says public polls overstated Democratic support by two or three points on average in 2016, 2020, and 2024, but were close in the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
- Robert Erikson says Republican Senate candidates outperformed state polls when Donald Trump was on the ballot, while that pattern did not appear in 2018 and 2022.
- Wedgewood Polls admitted fabricating surveys on October 20 after the polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne challenged its data.
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