Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down before
Summary
Democrats enter the U.S. midterm elections expecting gains, with polls showing them favored to win the House and competitive in several Senate races. But recent polling errors, difficulty reaching voters and uncertainty about turnout make the results hard to predict.Key Facts
- Polls cited in the article show Democrats leading in enough House races to potentially win the chamber’s 218 seats.
- Recent surveys show close Senate races in South Carolina, Texas, Kansas and Maine.
- The article notes that Donald Trump outperformed many polls in his 2016 and 2024 presidential victories.
- Polling predicted a larger Joe Biden win in 2020 than the narrow result that occurred.
- Ipsos Public Affairs president Clifford Young says pollsters have a harder time reaching people as they screen calls and leave landlines, and fewer people agree to take part.
- The article says undercounting Republican voters could skew polling results toward Democrats.
- In the 2022 midterms, Democrats lost the House by a narrow margin but kept control of the Senate.
- Young says primary elections have historically been volatile, even though recent primary results included large polling misses.
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