Who Will Win the Midterms? What 6 Major Forecasters Predict
Summary
Six election forecasters surveyed by Newsweek generally predicted gains for Democrats in the midterms, with the House appearing more attainable than the Senate. The article cited Democrats’ lead in generic-ballot polling and forecasts that several Senate races could be competitive, while noting that Republicans say polls may underestimate their support.Key Facts
- RealClearPolitics’ generic-ballot average gave Democrats an 8.9-point lead as of Monday.
- Before Election Day, Republicans held 218 House seats and Democrats held 214; the article said Democrats needed to gain a few seats for a majority.
- Republicans held a 53–47 Senate majority, and Democrats needed to flip four seats to control the chamber, with Vice President JD Vance able to break ties.
- Cook Political Report listed 18 House races as toss-ups and classified Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved all Senate races out of its toss-up category in its final predictions and favored Democrats to flip Alaska, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.
- A Republican National Committee spokesperson told Newsweek that polls have historically underestimated Republican support.
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