Abdul El-Sayed's Chances of Beating Mike Rogers—What Final Michigan Polls Show
Summary
Recent polls cited in the article show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race, though the lead ranges from one to 11 percentage points. Several polls put the contest within their margins of error, while polling averages and election forecasters also favor El-Sayed by varying degrees.Key Facts
- A Poll Vault/Emerson survey conducted October 31 to November 1 gave El-Sayed 51 percent and Rogers 45 percent, with a 4.4-point margin of error.
- An AtlasIntel poll put El-Sayed ahead 54 percent to 46 percent, with a 3-point margin of error.
- A New York Times/Siena poll reported El-Sayed leading 53 percent to 42 percent, with a 3.6-point margin of error.
- YouGov found El-Sayed at 51 percent and Rogers at 47 percent; CNN reported 49 percent for El-Sayed and 42 percent for Rogers.
- Insider Advantage showed a one-point El-Sayed lead, 47 percent to 46 percent, within the poll’s 2.8-point margin of error.
- RealClearPolling’s average gave El-Sayed a 5.3-point lead as of Tuesday morning.
- Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democrat; Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated it Leans Democratic, and Inside Elections rated it Tilt Democratic.
- More than 1.8 million Michigan residents had cast ballots early, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
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