How ARkStorm Could Threaten California This Winter
Summary
A strengthening El Niño may raise the chance of wetter-than-average conditions in parts of California this winter, increasing concern about flooding. An ARkStorm is a hypothetical series of exceptionally severe atmospheric river storms; it is not a forecast, and seasonal outlooks cannot predict individual storms.Key Facts
- The ARkStorm scenario was developed by government agencies, universities and research institutions to assess the effects of extreme California flooding.
- The scenario draws on historical storms, including the Great Flood of 1861–62, when repeated storms flooded large areas of the Central Valley.
- The U.S. Geological Survey estimates an ARkStorm-scale event could cause about $725 billion in property damage and business-interruption losses.
- The scenario estimates that around 1.5 million people could need to evacuate.
- NOAA's winter outlook for 2026–27 indicates an increased likelihood of wetter-than-average conditions in parts of the southern United States, including California.
- El Niño can affect storm tracks and precipitation, but its effects vary across California and do not guarantee a wet winter.
- Atmospheric rivers carry large amounts of water vapor; successive systems can saturate soil and raise the risk of flooding and landslides.
- The article says El Niño does not necessarily increase the frequency of atmospheric rivers reaching California.
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