Ranked-Choice Twist: The Other Dan Sullivan and the Numbers to Win Alaska
Summary
Mary Peltola led Senator Dan Sullivan by 637 first-choice votes in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race as of November 8, with many ballots still uncounted. Newsweek estimated that ranked-choice transfers could put Sullivan ahead by about 333 votes, but the result was not official and the state planned to count second choices on November 18 if no candidate won a majority.Key Facts
- The state had counted 215,906 ballots, and neither Peltola nor Sullivan had received more than 50 percent.
- About 51,000 early and absentee ballots were on hand but not yet counted; additional mail ballots could still arrive.
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a different candidate with the same name as the senator, had received 3,600 votes.
- Newsweek estimated that Sullivan Jr.’s ranked choices would give Peltola about 1,040 votes and Senator Sullivan about 590.
- After estimating transfers from the last-place candidates, Newsweek projected Senator Sullivan at about 105,290 votes and Peltola at about 104,960.
- The ranked-choice projection was Newsweek’s estimate, not an official state result.
- A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit on November 1 that sought to block a Peltola win over concerns about confusion between the two Sullivans.
- Alaska was also counting votes on a measure to repeal ranked-choice voting.
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