Victorian election 2026: Concern and scepticism among Labor MPs as new poll shows party trailing One Nation
Summary
A DemosAU/PremierNational poll puts Victorian Labor in third place on 18% of the primary vote, behind the Coalition and One Nation, and gives the Coalition a 56–44 lead over Labor on a two-party-preferred basis. Labor MPs voiced concern about the result and the campaign’s focus on crime, while some questioned the poll and called it an outlier; the state election is scheduled for November 28.Key Facts
- The poll puts the Coalition at 33%, One Nation at 21%, Labor at 18% and the Greens at 17% on primary votes.
- Labor’s primary vote fell seven points from September, while the Greens gained three points.
- The Coalition’s two-party-preferred lead over Labor widened from 52–48 in September to 56–44.
- The poll had 1,562 respondents, an effective sample of 818 and a 3.4% margin of error.
- Poll researcher George Hasanakos said a result like this on election night could produce many contests between the Coalition and One Nation, with Labor and Greens preferences favouring the Liberals.
- Labor campaign headquarters described the poll as an outlier and pointed to other public polls that put Labor’s primary vote in the 20s.
- Labor leader Ben Carroll announced a $204 million youth rehabilitation detention plan and $70 million to recruit 200 police reservists.
- The Victorian state election is scheduled for November 28.
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