The efficiency trap: why optimising everything can backfire, badly
Summary
Optimising systems can improve performance but also leave them less able to handle surprises, overlook important goals, or create harmful effects when separately optimised parts interact. The article illustrates these risks with hospital capacity, Milton Keynes roundabouts and the 2010 U.S. market crash, and says AI could make the traps more serious.Key Facts
- About 95% of adult hospital beds in England were occupied at the height of the previous flu season.
- The article says keeping some hospital beds unused can help hospitals respond to sudden increases in demand.
- Milton Keynes has about 130 roundabouts, which support traffic flow but can make coach journeys uncomfortable.
- The article says optimisation can overlook goals that are harder to measure, such as passenger comfort.
- On 6 May 2010, the S&P 500 fell another 5% in five minutes during a market decline, then recovered within 10 minutes.
- An automated program selling 75,000 futures contracts worth more than $4 billion was one trigger of the 2010 market swings.
- The article says automated traders reacted to one another, contributing to a loss of market liquidity.
- The article warns that AI could make the risks of excessive optimisation more serious.
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