America’s Swing States Are Playing King Lear
Summary
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has voiced support for choosing presidents by the national popular vote, even though that change could reduce Pennsylvania’s special influence as a swing state. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would take effect once participating states control at least 270 electoral votes; the article says five newly Democratic-led swing states could bring the compact to 283, if they join and it withstands legal challenges.Key Facts
- Shapiro said Pennsylvania could still play a major role under a national popular vote at a Pod Save America event.
- The compact’s member states would award their electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner, regardless of their own state results.
- The compact would take effect once its participating states together control at least 270 electoral votes.
- The article says the compact then had backing from states representing 222 electoral votes.
- The article says Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada had Democratic control of their governorships and legislatures after the 2026 midterms, and together held 61 electoral votes.
- FairVote’s analysis of the 2024 election found that 94 percent of in-person presidential campaign events between the party conventions and Election Day took place in seven battleground states.
- Under a national popular vote, a vote in Pennsylvania would count the same as a vote in California, reducing candidates’ incentive to focus on Pennsylvania’s statewide result.
- Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak vetoed legislation to join the compact in 2019, saying it could reduce smaller states’ role in presidential elections.
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