How Polls, Forecasts Got Mississippi Senate Race So Wrong
Summary
Democrat Scott Colom defeated Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race by 4,669 votes, winning 49.2% to 48.7%. Public polling and political ratings had generally favored Hyde-Smith, and Colom said those assessments made it harder for his campaign to raise money.Key Facts
- Colom led Hyde-Smith by 4,669 votes out of 962,237 counted when the race was called.
- Colom received 49.2% of the vote, while Hyde-Smith received 48.7%.
- The final legitimate public poll showed Hyde-Smith ahead by 3 points, within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
- Cook Political Report rated the race Likely Republican and did not move it into a more competitive category.
- A Data for Progress survey conducted in August showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom 44% to 38%, with 7% for independent Ty Pinkins and 11% undecided.
- In that August survey, 50% viewed Hyde-Smith unfavorably, while 57% said they had not heard enough about Colom to assess him.
- Colom said Solid Republican ratings made fundraising harder for his campaign.
- A political science professor said that a polling lead within the margin of error should be treated as a statistical dead heat.
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