Scientists Predicted Doomsday for November 13, 2026—They Got It All Wrong
Summary
A 1960 mathematical model projected that human population growth would approach an impossible infinite level around 2026. The date November 13 was a joke tied to physicist Heinz von Foerster’s birthday, and the model did not predict a literal end of the world. Global population has since grown from about 3 billion to more than 8 billion, while concerns in many countries have shifted toward low birth rates and aging populations.Key Facts
- Physicist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues published the paper “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” in Science in 1960.
- The model extrapolated population estimates from nearly 2,000 years to estimate when population growth would approach infinity.
- The model’s projected date had an error range of about five and a half years.
- November 13 was selected because it was von Foerster’s birthday.
- The paper discussed population pressure, not a shortage of food, land, or energy.
- The global population was about 3 billion when the paper appeared and has since exceeded 8 billion.
- Many countries now face concerns about low birth rates, aging populations, and shrinking workforces.
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