The polar vortex just broke a new record but experts aren't sure what it means for this winter's weather
Summary
The polar vortex’s winds have reversed from westerly to easterly, marking the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record. The event could affect the jet stream and raise the chance of cold or snowy weather in the UK and North America, but its unusually early timing makes winter impacts uncertain.Key Facts
- The polar vortex is a band of strong winds in the stratosphere above the Arctic.
- A major sudden stratospheric warming occurs when stratospheric temperatures rise sharply and the polar vortex winds reverse direction.
- The previous earliest recorded major sudden stratospheric warmings occurred on 28 November in 1969 and 2025.
- Polar vortex disruptions can shift the jet stream and allow colder air to move south.
- Major sudden stratospheric warmings have historically been linked with colder, drier UK weather and a greater chance of snow, especially in eastern areas.
- Past polar vortex disruptions have been linked to severe winter weather in North America, including storms in 2010, 2018 and 2021.
- Experts say this autumn event’s effects are uncertain because few early-season examples exist.
- The current cold spell is not connected to this sudden stratospheric warming.
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