Old Farmer's Almanac Explains El Nino's Potential Winter Impact
Summary
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is strengthening and has about a 60 percent chance of reaching historic strength during parts of late 2026 and early 2027. Seasonal forecasts point to a mild or warmer-than-average winter across much of the United States, with wetter conditions more likely in the South and other regions, though El Niño does not ensure those patterns in every location.Key Facts
- El Niño is a climate pattern linked to unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean.
- The Climate Prediction Center said the event would likely remain strong to very strong through January–March 2027.
- The center put the chance of a historic event, exceeding El Niños recorded since 1950, at about 60 percent for October–December and November–January.
- The center said sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C and extended farther west across the eastern equatorial Pacific.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast a mild winter across much of the country, with colder areas from central New England through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley.
- The Almanac forecast wetter-than-usual conditions in much of the West and parts of the Midwest, South, and Florida.
- NOAA forecast warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern United States and wetter-than-average conditions across the southern tier and along the Eastern Seaboard for December 2026 through February 2027.
- A strong El Niño can shift the jet stream, which guides storms, but does not guarantee stronger storms or typical effects in every region.
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