What could El Niño mean for winter weather in the US and Canada?
Summary
A developing El Niño is expected to affect winter weather across the United States and Canada, but its effects are not certain. Forecasts favor wetter conditions in parts of the southern United States and California, while many northern areas may have a warmer, drier winter.Key Facts
- El Niño occurs when Pacific trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean water to spread eastward.
- El Niño can shift the Pacific jet stream south and east, steering rain-bearing weather systems across the southern United States.
- The U.S. National Weather Service forecast favors above-average winter rainfall in southeastern states, including Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
- California could see a wet winter, which may raise flood and mudslide risks, especially in areas scarred by recent wildfires.
- El Niño-related eastward-moving ocean water can raise sea levels along the Americas’ west coast by 15 centimeters or more.
- Forecasts favor warmer and drier winter conditions in parts of the northwestern United States, Northern Plains, Ohio Valley and western and central Canada.
- Warmer, drier conditions in northern areas can reduce snowfall and leave water levels low, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires in spring and summer.
- El Niño shifts the odds of certain weather outcomes but does not guarantee them; past El Niño winters have differed from one another.
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