Global oil supply returns to surplus for first time since start of Iran war, says IEA
Summary
Global oil supply exceeded demand by nearly 2 million barrels a day in October, as Gulf exports recovered faster than demand. The International Energy Agency expects a larger surplus in the final quarter of 2026 and says member countries will release another 71 million barrels from emergency stockpiles by the end of February.Key Facts
- Oil supply exceeded demand by nearly 2 million barrels a day in October.
- The IEA forecasts average global oil supply of 105 million barrels a day in the final three months of 2026, 1.7 million barrels a day above expected demand.
- The IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 2.68 million barrels a day this year, to 103.2 million barrels a day.
- IEA member countries plan to add 71 million barrels from emergency stockpiles to the market by the end of February.
- OPEC+ produced 41 million barrels a day of crude in October, about 97% of its prewar volume.
- Brent crude traded at about $95 a barrel on Friday, after reaching $126 a barrel at the end of April.
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