Putin’s Ukraine Peace Plan: The Prewar Ultimatum, With Interest
Summary
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi peace talks had returned to ideas in Moscow’s December 2021 draft security agreements. Russia’s current demands include territorial concessions from Ukraine and restrictions on its military and NATO ties, while separate proposals attributed to Putin’s inner circle reportedly call for Finland to leave NATO and NATO bases to be removed from the Baltic states.Key Facts
- Russia published draft security agreements addressed to the United States and NATO on December 17, 2021.
- The 2021 drafts called for NATO to stop expanding, exclude Ukraine from membership, and reduce military deployments in Eastern Europe.
- Ryabkov said Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi had returned to ideas and approaches in the 2021 drafts.
- Putin said a future agreement’s line of demarcation must follow what Russia calls its state border, including all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
- A Russian memorandum published in June 2025 demanded recognition of Russia’s annexations, Ukrainian neutrality, no foreign troops or bases in Ukraine, and limits on Ukraine’s armed forces.
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated Russia had suffered 1.4 million battlefield casualties, including up to 450,000 deaths, through June 2026.
- A purported Rosstat data leak suggested more than 400,000 Russian deaths, but the claim has not been verified and Rosstat denies the leak.
- Bild reported that unofficial proposals attributed to Putin’s inner circle called for Finland to leave NATO and for NATO bases in the Baltic states to be removed.
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