Summary
Economists are discussing how the economies of California and New York could impact whether the U.S. enters a recession. These two states are significant due to their economic size and influence, with concerns about a slowing job market and trade policies adding to the uncertainty.
Key Facts
- Economists are watching California and New York closely as indicators for a possible U.S. recession.
- Scott Anderson from BMO Capital Markets views these states as "canaries in the coal mine" for the national economy.
- Some states are already experiencing or are at high risk of recession, according to Moody's Analytics.
- California and New York have shown some economic strength recently but remain at a critical point.
- Job growth in the U.S. has slowed significantly, adding to recession concerns.
- Higher tariffs and strict immigration policies are affecting business sentiment and hiring.
- Official job growth data is delayed, but private estimates suggest a possible job loss in September.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 of 2025, with slower growth projected for Q3.
