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In Iraq, will Muqtada al-Sadr’s endgame of power work?

In Iraq, will Muqtada al-Sadr’s endgame of power work?

Summary

Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia leader in Iraq, announced his movement would not participate in the upcoming elections as part of his broader plan to reform the political system. Al-Sadr previously withdrew his parliamentary bloc in 2022 after his attempt to form a majority government failed. He is positioning his movement to eventually take over, while engaging in negotiations to re-enter the political scene on favorable terms.

Key Facts

  • Muqtada al-Sadr is a prominent Iraqi Shia leader.
  • He announced a boycott of the November elections in a statement, aiming for political reform.
  • Al-Sadr withdrew his parliamentary bloc in June 2022, allowing a rival coalition to gain power.
  • His political rivals, the Shia Coordination Framework, are currently the largest Shia bloc in parliament.
  • The Sadrists attempted to negotiate a return to politics by re-entering the elections.
  • Al-Sadr's previous plan to form a "national majority" government was blocked by Iraq's power-sharing system, known as Muhasasa.
  • Muhasasa allocates government positions based on ethnic and sectarian lines to prevent dictatorship.
  • Al-Sadr is positioning the Sadrists as an alternative power, ready to step in if current governance fails.
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