Summary
Democrat Abigail Spanberger is favored to win the Virginia governor’s race, though the size of her victory is not clear. Polls show her leading her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, but by varying margins. The outcome may affect the political climate in Virginia and shape Democratic influence in the state.
Key Facts
- Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic candidate for Virginia's governor's race.
- Polls show Spanberger leading Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, but by different amounts.
- Some polls suggest Spanberger could win by a large margin, which is not guaranteed.
- Polymarket data indicates Spanberger has a 14% chance to win by 15-18 points and a 7% chance to win by more than 18 points.
- No poll shows Spanberger with 60% of the popular vote, a possible definition of a landslide.
- An A2 Insights poll shows Spanberger ahead by 8 points and a Christopher Newport University poll shows a 7-point lead.
- Spanberger's support is strong among Democratic voters and key demographics like women and younger voters.
- Earle-Sears has strong backing from Republican voters.
