Summary
Mikie Sherrill is expected to win New Jersey's governor race but not by a large margin. Polls show her leading over her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, with varying degrees of support. New Jersey has typically favored Democratic candidates in statewide elections.
Key Facts
- Mikie Sherrill is competing in New Jersey's gubernatorial election as the Democratic candidate.
- The prediction platform Polymarket gives her a 6% chance of winning by a landslide (15 percentage points or more).
- New Jersey has been a Democratic stronghold; no Republican has won the governor's seat since 2013.
- President Trump improved the Republican vote share in New Jersey by about 10 points in 2024.
- Sherrill's lead against Ciattarelli ranges from 1 to 12 points according to recent polls.
- The latest GQR poll shows Sherrill ahead by 12 points, while other polls show a narrower lead.
- Sherrill's early campaign had strong support but faced challenges after records from her time at the U.S. Naval Academy came to light.
